Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 242303
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

...LEE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 24
 the center of Lee was located near 31.1, -49.5
 with movement ESE at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 28

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 250232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...LEE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 49.5W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 49.5 West.  Lee is moving toward
the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is
expected overnight.  A turn to the southwest and then west is
expected Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Lee is a tiny hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 28

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 250231
TCMAT4

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  49.5W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  49.5W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  49.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N  49.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.7N  49.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.6N  51.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.8N  52.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.8N  54.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 34.7N  53.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 40.0N  46.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N  49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 28

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 250232
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Lee has been relatively steady state in intensity during the last
several hours.  The 10 n mi eye of the hurricane remains distinct,
and although the convective pattern around the eye is fairly
symmetric, the cloud tops are not very cold.  The latest Dvorak
intensity estimates are 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and ADT
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are slightly higher
at 4.7/82 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held
at 80 kt.  Recent ASCAT data confirms that Lee is a very compact
hurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi
from the center.

Although wind shear is expected to remain low near Lee during the
next couple of days, the hurricane is likely to be over its own cool
SST wake for part of that time.  These marginal SSTs and dry air
will likely cause the system to change little in strength during
the next couple of days.  Thereafter, much drier air, a sharp
increase in shear, and a track toward colder water should cause
weakening by the end of the forecast period.  The NHC intensity
forecast is identical to the previous one and in best agreement with
the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Lee has been drifting east-southeastward during the past 12 hours in
the flow on the south side of a mid- to upper-level trough.  The
trough is expected to bypass Lee on Monday, allowing high pressure
to build to the north of the cyclone.  This change in the steering
pattern should cause the hurricane to turn westward by Monday night
and Tuesday.  By mid-week, another trough is expected to approach
the hurricane, and this one should cause the system to accelerate to
the northeast over the central Atlantic.  The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted to the west of the previous one to come into better
agreement with the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 31.1N  49.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 31.0N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 30.7N  49.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 30.6N  51.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 30.8N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 31.8N  54.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 34.7N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 40.0N  46.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 250232
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Hurricane Lee Graphics


Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:39:13 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:23:19 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER...
 As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 24
 the center of Maria was located near 30.0, -73.0
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 950 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 36

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Monday.  Swells
also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 36

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 250232
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  73.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  73.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N  72.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.9N  73.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 35.2N  72.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N  73.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 36

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Hurricane Hunter observations indicate that Maria has weakened.
Using a blend of flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds
along with a dropsonde in the northeast eyewall of the hurricane,
the current intensity is set at 80 kt.  Observations from a NOAA
aircraft indicate that the SSTs beneath Maria are on the order of
24-25 deg C, which has probably contributed to the decrease of
intensity.  These relatively cool waters are likely due to mixing
and upwelling from slow-moving Hurricane Jose, which traversed the
area a little over a week ago.  Gradual weakening is anticipated for
the next few days, and the official intensity forecast is near or
above the latest model consensus.  Maria is expected to remain a
hurricane for at least the next few days, however.

Based on a number of center fixes from the Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters, the motion is northward at a slightly slower
speed, or 360/7 kt.  Maria is being steered by the flow between a
mid-level cyclone near the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the southwestern Atlantic.  A mid-level ridge over the
northeastern U.S. will likely cause Maria's forward motion to slow
some more over the next couple of days.  The global models predict
that this ridge will break down by 72 hours, and this should
allow Maria to turn to the right as it begins to approach the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is similar to
the previous one and lies near the left edge of the numerical
guidance, in deference to the reliable ECMWF which is the
westernmost of the model tracks.

Maria is a large hurricane, so it could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the North Carolina coast in a couple of
days, even if its center remains well offshore.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
Carolina.

2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight or on Monday.  These swells will likely cause
dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through
much of the week.  For more information, please monitor information
from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 30.0N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 33.0N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 33.9N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 35.2N  72.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 36.5N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 38.0N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 250233
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   X(17)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   X(23)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  13(21)   5(26)   X(26)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)  12(26)   4(30)   X(30)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)  13(29)   4(33)   X(33)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)  14(32)   4(36)   1(37)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   2( 2)  10(12)  10(22)  15(37)   3(40)   1(41)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   7(19)   2(21)   X(21)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  2   7( 9)  20(29)  18(47)  14(61)   3(64)   X(64)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   9(15)   2(17)   X(17)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  1   6( 7)   9(16)  11(27)  11(38)   2(40)   X(40)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  3   5( 8)  16(24)  13(37)  11(48)   2(50)   X(50)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  2   6( 8)  12(20)  11(31)  11(42)   2(44)   X(44)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  1   5( 6)   8(14)   8(22)   8(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   6(18)   7(25)   1(26)   X(26)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  1   5( 6)   7(13)   6(19)   5(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:41:26 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:29:38 GMT

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics


Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:17:52 GMT

Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:26:44 GMT

Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:45:52 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  1045 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  1148 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017