Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 141150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,
Canada.

A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
is moving slowly west-northwestward. Showers and thunderstorms are
showing some signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during
the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to
northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are
associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over
north-central Honduras. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across Honduras, southern Belize, and northern
Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the
next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to
emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could
become a little more conducive for some organization to occur.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. While
thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of
this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at
around 15 mph. By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward
Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for
any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)

...MELISSA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR SO...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 14
 the center of Melissa was located near 40.7, -54.0
 with movement ENE at 20 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140830
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...MELISSA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A
DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 54.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 54.0 West.  Melissa is
moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A faster
east-northeast or east motion is expected later today and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Melissa are gradually subsiding along
much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 140830
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019
0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N  54.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N  54.0W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N  55.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.2N  50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 41.5N  43.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N  54.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140831
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

Melissa is hanging on to tropical storm status.  Satellite images
indicate that an area of deep convection continues to pulse in the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation, but the remainder of the
cyclone consists of a swirl of low-level clouds.  The center of
Melissa is losing definition as it is becoming increasingly
elongated from northeast to southwest due to the interaction with
a front about 90 n mi to its northwest.  An ASCAT-C pass from around
0100 UTC showed maximum winds of about 35 kt in the southeastern
quadrant, and the initial intensity is held at that value.  This
wind speed estimate is a little higher than the Dvorak estimates.

Melissa is expected to remain in hostile conditions of strong
westerly wind shear and dry mid-level air, and it is headed for
progressively cooler waters.  These conditions should promote
weakening and ultimately dissipation within a day or two.
Although the official forecast doesn't show Melissa dissipating
until 36 hours, most of the models show the storm opening up into a
trough later today, so it could certainly dissipate sooner than
forecast.

The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward at 17 kt.  An even
faster east-northeast to east motion is expected until the
cyclone dissipates as it moves within the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 40.7N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 41.2N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0600Z 41.5N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 140831
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019               
0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics


Tropical Storm Melissa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 08:32:06 GMT

Tropical Storm Melissa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 09:24:26 GMT