Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 192313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, and on
Hurricane Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. The
wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development is possible while it
approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend.
Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the
wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea
just south of Hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the east and northeast of its center of
circulation. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward
at about 5 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the wave moves westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Remnants of Imelda Public Advisory Number 10

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19
 the center of Humberto was located near 40.0, -58.0
 with movement NNE at 20 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 965 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Public Advisory Number 30

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 58.0W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Humberto was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 58.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
20 mph (31 km/h).  A slower north-northeastward motion is expected
tonight and Friday.  A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to
commence by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380
miles (610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and
these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of
the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 30

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 200248
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  58.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......330NE 240SE 180SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 540SE 995SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  58.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N  58.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 41.8N  56.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 44.0N  54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 45.5N  48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 46.5N  40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N  58.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 30

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 200249
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite images show what little deep convection remains has been
displaced well to the north of the center of the cyclone, and it
can no longer be classified via the Dvorak technique.  Moreover,
cold air stratocumulus clouds over the western and southern
portions of the circulation are indicative of cold air advection
that is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone.  Therefore,
Humberto is now post-tropical and this will be the last advisory
issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

It is estimated that the cyclone still has hurricane-force winds
and based on continuity from previous estimates with a gradual
weakening rate, the current intensity is set at 85 kt.  Continued
gradual weakening is likely, and after 48 hours the system is
expected to merge with another extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

The cyclone has turned north-northeastward along the eastern side
of a deep layer cyclonic circulation, with a current motion
estimate of 030/17 kt.  A turn toward the east-northeast is
expected in a day or so as the system moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies until dissipation.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 40.0N  58.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  20/1200Z 41.8N  56.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  21/0000Z 44.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/1200Z 45.5N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  22/0000Z 46.5N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 200248
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                   
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   5( 5)  38(43)   4(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  2  42(44)  10(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  8  25(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  6   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 74   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:51:37 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:24:55 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19
 the center of Jerry was located near 18.0, -57.2
 with movement WNW at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 976 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 200243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North,
longitude 57.2 West.  Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
16 mph (26 km/h).  A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin
by late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.  This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods.  Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 200241
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  57.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  57.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  56.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N  59.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N  64.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N  66.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N  68.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N  67.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 35.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  57.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 200246
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening
found that the hurricane has strengthened.  Based on the 700 mb
flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is
estimated to be about 90 kt.  It should be noted that this is
substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from
satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance
of tropical cyclones.  An expected increase in vertical shear in a
day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12
to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the
forecast period.  This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is
near or a little above the model consensus.

Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or
295/14 kt.  Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should
continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as
it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then
north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the
ridge.  The track prediction models are in good agreement on this
scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous
one.  This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus
model, or HCCA, track.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 18.0N  57.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 18.8N  59.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 20.0N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 21.2N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 22.6N  66.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 25.7N  68.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 29.0N  67.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 35.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 200243
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  40(53)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SABA           34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Hurricane Jerry Graphics


Hurricane Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:49:27 GMT

Hurricane Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:32:03 GMT